Monday, July 30, 2007

WE HEAR JAKE LONG IS A GOOD PROSPECT

With the 2007 NFL season upon us, we thought we'd offer our little projections for each team's total wins, using the over/under lines posted by our favorite sportsbook. Helping out in the projections will be our copy of Pro Football Prospectus, the fine book from the guys at Football Outsiders. Up first, the Oakland Raiders.

We still remember the Vegas line from last season's Week 1 game between the Oakland Raiders and San Diego Chargers: SD -3 1/2. It goes without saying that we now regret not jumping all over that one, as the Chargers rolled 27-0. Of course, not many people could have predicted how historically bad the Raiders offense would be in 2006, which scored 20 or more points in a game only four times all year. That's what you get for putting a former bed and breakfast manager in charge of drawing up plays. The defense, to their credit, was very good -- FO ranked them as the 9th best unit in the league.

Vegas has the Raiders at an over/under of five wins for the 2007 season. Gone from the team are Art Shell and Randy Moss, and in comes new head coach Lane Kiffin, No. 1 pick JaMarcus Russell, and fellow rookie Michael Bush. They have home-in-home games with Denver and San Diego, and get the Colts and Bears at home, with Jacksonville on the road. That's seven losses right there. Throw in road games at Miami, Green Bay, Tennessee and Minnesota, and we can see the Raiders easily losing 11 games. Football Outsiders projects them with 6.5 wins, which we think is generous. We think the Raiders will once again be picking in the Top 3 come the 2008 draft, and see them finishing at 4-12, Warren Sapp's miraculous weight loss be damned.

Vegas: 5.0 wins
Football Outsiders: 6.5 wins
Getting Soaw: 4.0 wins

2 comments:

Walsh said...

hey bob, love the new feature. hope it lasts longer than Peanuts Here did....

i think you gotta watch out for the Raiders this year. Sure, not for the playoffs, but they could hit 6 wins. The whole AFC West got worse - with LJ's holdout and impending ACL tear, the Chiefs and Brodie Croyle are clearly done. Chargers take a step back with Nervous Norv taking over, and Broncos are handing it over to a still unproven 2nd year QB (Is Jay Cutler that much better than JaMarcus Russell, and which team has a better D?). The Silver and black already have a real strong defense, replace Art Shell and company with a young enthusiastic coach and a staff who may actually know something about football, and you could get a little Mangini/Sean Payton effect.

Whadda ya think ?

can't wait for NFL to start

Bob Sacamano said...

ha, i would love to bring Peanuts Here back, if only i had a little help . . .

5 wins was a tough number for oakland, and since there's no fun projecting right on point, it was either 4 or 6. i have 4, you have 6 -- we'll see. no doubt KC is gonna be brutal, but SD and DEN will be strong as usual. and OAK has nothing going for them on offense. like, maybe worse than last year. and i'm doubtful that defense can be as good.

either way, oakland v detroit week 1 has classic written all over it.